Latest Weather update..

The latest computer models have come into good agreement that a large but not necessary powerful winter storm will move up the East Coast later today, then pause and re-form off the coast Wednesday morning before moving East of Cape Cod by Wednesday Evening. The following forecast is a blend of the GFS and NAM models:

This afternoon... Snow developing from Southwest to Northeast between 3:00 - 5:00 PM. The snow is expected to become steady and moderate by 7:00 PM with accumulations of around 1/2 inch per hour. The snow is expected to mix with freezing rain and sleet along the immediate Southwest coast by 8:00 PM. The impact on the evening commute is expected to be minor to moderate (slightly less cars on the roads due to the holiday) with snow starting during the rush hour and covering roads by 7:00 PM. Temperatures are expected to be in the Mid to Upper 20's across most of the state during the afternoon rush hour.

This Evening and Overnight...Snow changing to sleet and freezing rain from Southwest to Northeast between 8:00 PM and reaching the MA border by 2:00 AM. During the overnight period the sleet and freezing rain (which could be heavy at times) will slowly turn to all rain in Southern CT however, sleet and freezing rain are expected to hold on in Northern CT overnight with ice accumulations up to 1/4 inch and temperatures in the Mid 20's in Northern CT. Some minor tree and powerline damage may result from the icing, and some urban flooding may occur in poorly drained areas in Southern CT.

Wednesday Morning...Any Sleet and Freezing rain (some of it heavy at times) turning to plain rain in Northern CT by 10:00 AM. Impact on the morning rush hour is expected to be minor to moderate with some slick slushy roads in Northern CT and wet roads in Southern CT (South of the I-84 Corridor). Some urban and small stream flooding may occur due to periods of heavy rain. Temperatures are expected to reach highs near 40 F at the coast and into the upper 30's inland by noontime.

Wednesday Afternoon...Rain across the state (may still be heavy at times in Southeast CT) could change back to a period of mixed precipitation in the NW Hills before ending Wednesday evening. Some urban and small stream flooding may occur due to periods of heavy rain. Temperatures are forecast to begin falling back into the 30's by Wednesday evening with widespread black ice forming Wednesday night across the State. Impact on the evening rush hour should be minor in most places. The impact of the black ice should be later in the evening and overnight. Black ice may also be an issue during the Thursday morning commute.